我国旅客出行发展趋势

Research on Passengers Travel Development Trends of China

党的十九大报告作出了建设交通强国的重大决策部署，打造与旅客出行需求相适应的旅客出行体系是交通强国的重要组成部分，科学分析我国旅客出行现状特点、准确判断未来发展趋势是建设旅客出行体系的基础。本文系统地梳理、总结我国旅客出行特点，基于国际经验和国内发展历程，结合我国实际和党的十九大报告提出的相关要求，考虑了未来居民收入和支出水平、新技术新模式发展、国家战略、人口规模及老龄化、GDP规模、产业结构及空间布局等影响居民出行的主要因素，研判了未来旅客出行需求的变化趋势。

The 19th National Congress of CPC made the decision of building transportation power. It＇s an important component of the transportation power to establish the passengers travel system adapting to the travel demands. Establishment of passengers travel system is based on a scientific analysis of the current characteristics of passengers travel in China and an accurate judgment of future development trend of passengers travel. The current characteristics of passengers travel are analyzed. Accordance to international and domestic experiences and the requirements of the 19th National Congress of CPC, the article focuses on the change trends of passengers travel in future, considering the factors as followings： levels of residents income and expenditure, development and application of new technologies, national strategies, population scale and process of population aging, GDP, industrial structure as well as spatial layout.