基于二步骤法的中小城市出租汽车发展规模研究

An Investigation on the Scale Development of Taxi in Small and Medium-sized Cities by Two-step Methods

随着生活水平的不断提高，人民对出行工具的需求也发生变化，出租车作为一种便捷、舒适的运输工具越来越受到青睐与使用。本文以国内某一小城市为例，针对出租车的车辆数量、运行状况、经营模式、实载率等出租客运出行特征进行分析，采用实载率控制法预测出租车规模，在此基础上根据实际需求合理修正预测结果。出租车发展规模预测的二步骤法可以统筹考虑实际需求与理论预测，有效避免传统出租车预测模型的不足，并给予相应的发展对策，对中小城市出租车运营及发展具有一定的参考价值。

The improving living standards trigger a change in people＇s need in transportation mode, where the taxi is more and more favored by residents as a convenient and comfortable transportation. This study in certain small-sized city is empirically made to investigate the taxi-based vehicles, operating conditions, business models, actual load rates, and other characteristics of rental passenger trips. Using the actual load rate control method, we forecast the scale of taxis, and reasonably increase the result based on the actual demand. The two-step method employed for predicting taxi scale development considers the actual needs and theoretical predictions, prevents from the occurrences of deficiencies in the traditional taxi prediction model, and gives corresponding development strategies supporting the operation and development of taxis in small and mediumsized cities.