基于CBR的地铁工程事故应急决策方法研究

Research on the Emergency Decision-making Method for the Safety Accidents in Subway Construction Based on CBR

研究目的:地铁工程安全事故涉及因素多,关联关系复杂,一般很难直接获取事故因果关系规则,给事故应急处置决策带来困难。本文针对地铁工程安全事故应急决策的困境,在对地铁工程安全事故机理进行剖析的基础上,借鉴CBR理论构建面向地铁工程事故的案例表示模型,提出案例检索策略和案例相似度计算方法。研究结论:(1)基于灾害系统理论对地铁工程事故发生机理进行分析,地铁工程事故是由孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体三要素共同作用的结果;(2)在对地铁工程事故案例特征要素剖析基础上提出的多层次案例结构化表示模型,可为案例检索提供基础;(3)地铁工程事故案例具有特征属性多、类型多样等特点,两级检索策略可提高案例的检索效率和有效性;(4)该研究成果可为地铁工程突发安全事故的应急决策提供支持和参考。

Research purposes： There are many factors with complex association relationship involved in the safety of subway construction,so it is difficult to extract the rules for causal relationship of accidents directly,which increases the difficulty in emergency disposal decision-making of accidents. To cope with the dilemma of emergency decision-making of safety accidents in subway construction,this paper analyzes the occurrence mechanism of accidents in subway construction,builds a case representation model,and proposes a case retrieval strategy and a case similarity calculation method based on CBR.Research conclusions：（1） According to analysis of the occurrence mechanism of accidents in subway construction based on disaster system theories,subway engineering accident is the result of combined action of three factors including disaster environment,disaster factor and disaster-bearing body.（2） A multi-level case structured representation model is put forward based on the feature analysis on the accidents in subway construction to provide base for case retrieval.（3） Accident cases in subway construction are of the characters of multi-feature attribute and multi-type,while two-level retrieval strategy can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of case retrieval.（4） The research resultscan provide support and reference for emergency decision making of accidents in subway construction.