政府支出与碳排放的影响因素分析——基于STIRPAT拓展模型的面板实证

Analysis on factors affecting government expenditure and carbon emissions:empirical evidence based on STIRPAT model

在STIRPAT模型基础上,加入政府因素,建立拓展的STIRPAT模型,并利用江苏省、浙江省、山东省、广东省、辽宁省、黑龙江省、北京市、上海市相关的面板数据,对其碳排放的影响因素进行定量分析。结果发现:人口数量、城镇化、人均GDP、能源结构、政府一般预算支出都会影响当地碳排放;其中城镇化、人均GDP、能源结构和政府一般预算支出每增加1%,碳排放会相应增加0.35%、0.16%、0.89%和11.97%;政府一般预算支出对碳排放的影响最大,能源强度对碳排放的影响次之。

Based on the STIRPAT model,adding government factors and establishing an expanded STIRPAT model,using the panel data of Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shandong,Guangdong,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Beijing and Shanghai,the quantitative analysis of the impact of its carbon emissions was conducted.The results showed that the population,urbanization,per capita GDP,energy structure,general government budget expenditures will affect the local carbon emissions;every 1%increase of urbanization,per capita GDP,energy structure and government general budget expenditures cause a corresponding increase of 0.35 %,0.16%,0.89% and 11.97% respectively in carbon emissions.The government budget expenditure had the greatest impact on carbon emissions,followed by the energy intensity.