贵州高原1960-2016年降水变化特征及重心转移分析

Analysis of Precipitation Variation Characteristics and Barycenter Shift in Guizhou Plateau during 1960-2016

利用贵州高原34个气象站1960-2016年共57 a的降水资料,基于协同克里金法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、气候倾向率、重心模型等方法分析了贵州高原降水在不同时间尺度下的时空分布规律以及降水重心的转移趋势。结果表明:(1)贵州高原多年平均降水量呈现南多北少特征。在南部与东部存在3个多雨中心,分别位于西南暖湿气流的北上通道(兴义-安顺一带)、苗岭山脉的迎风坡(都匀-独山一带)以及武陵山脉的迎风坡(铜仁-松桃一带);少雨区位于乌蒙山脉背风坡的威宁-毕节一带。(2) 1960-2016年降水量年代变化呈现出波动性,2010s的降水变异性最大,1990s的降水变异性最小;年际变化较为剧烈,呈不显著减少的趋势,在空间上呈现中部西部减少、东部增加的趋势;降水季节差异显著,春季、秋季降水显著减少,夏季、冬季的降水不明显增加;各月降水变化情况不同,1、3月降水增加最明显,4月降水下降最明显。(3)降水重心呈西南-东北向分布,有明显的东移趋势。贵州高原降水量的减少可能与西南季风的减弱有关。研究结果对贵州地区水资源配置及洪涝灾害预防具有重要意义。

Based on the precipitation data of 34 meteorological stations in Guizhou Plateau from 1960 to 2016,the study analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation and its barycenter shift in Guizhou Plateau at different time scales using the Co-Kriging method, Mann-Kendall trend test method, the climate tendency rate and barycenter model. The results indicate that：（1） The average annual precipitation over the Guizhou Plateau was characterized by decreasing from the south and the east to the northwest.There were three rainy centers in the south and east of Guizhou Plateau, respectively located in the northward transport path of the southwest warm and humid airflow（Xingyi-Anshun area）, the windward slope of the Miaoling Mountains（Duyun-Dushan area） and the windward slope of the Wuling Mountains（Tongren-Songtao area）; And the less rainy area was located in Weining and Bijie, where is the leeward slope of the Wumeng Mountains.（2） The chronological changes of precipitation from 1960 to 2016 presented volatility, the precipitation variability of 2010 s was the largest, and the precipitation variability of 1990 s was the smallest; the interannual variation was more dramatic,showing a not-significant decrease trend, which presented a spatial reduction in the central and western regions and increase in eastern regions. The differences in seasonal precipitation was obviously, precipitation decreased significantly in spring and autumn, and did not increase significantly in summer and winter.The change of precipitation in each month was different. The increase in precipitation was most significant in January and March, and the decline in precipitation in April was the most significant.（3） The precipitation barycenter was distributed in the southwest-northeast direction, and there had been a clear eastward shift in the past 57 years.The decrease of precipitation in Guizhou Plateau had the possibility of being associated with the weakening of the Southwest Monsoon. The above results are of great significance to the allocation of water resources and the prevention of flood disasters in Guizhou.