基于功效法的井下泥石流灾害预警研究

Research on Early Warning of Underground Mud-rocks Flow Based on Efficacy Coefficient Method

井下泥石流对矿山的安全生产造成严重威胁,对井下泥石流的灾害预警可以有效保护矿山财产与人员安全。通过分析井下泥石流形成机理,确定了持续降雨时间,总降雨量,日降雨量,开采深度,土层厚度5个评价因子。用层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重,结合功效系数法建立井下泥石流预测预警模型,并用程潮铁矿发生过的4次大型井下泥石流灾害检验了预警模型的可靠性。

The underground mud-rocks flow poses a serious threat to the safe production of mines, and the early warning of underground mud-rocks flow can effectively protect the mine property and personnel safety. By analyzing the formation mechanism of underground mud-rocks flow, five evaluation factors, including continuous rainfall time, total rainfall, current day rainfall, mining depth, and soil thickness, were determined. The weight of each evaluation factors was determined by analytic hierarchy process, and an underground mud-rocks flow forecasting and early-warning model was established by combining with efficacy coefficient method. The reliability of the early-warning model was verified through four underground mud-rocks flow accidents in Chengchao Iron Mine.