滑行道安全间距不满足要求时飞机滑行风险评价

Risk Assessment of Aircraft Taxiing When the Safety Distance of Taxiway Fails to Meet the Requirement

针对机场飞行区滑行道宽度及滑行道与固定物体、平行滑行道间距不满足标准要求,飞机滑行过程中存在风险的问题,分析了飞机滑行的轨迹偏差,基于极值理论和广义Pareto分布的主要原理,分析滑行道偏离的高尾数据,选取合适的阈值,建立了偏离超阈值碰撞风险模型;在此基础上,对基础数据样本选取、阈值确定以及模型参数确定进行分析,最终给出了滑行道偏差的概率分布。

Aimed at the problems that the width of taxiway, the separation between taxiways and other fixed objects of the flying area fails to meet the standard requirement and the risk of aircraft operation, this paper analyzes the route deviation caused by aircraft during taxing. Based on the extreme value theory, by using the main principle of generalized Pareto distribution, the high tail of the data is analyzed, the appropriate threshold is selected and the exceed threshold model is established. On this basis, the selection of the data base sample is analyzed. Then, the paper determines the appropriate threshold and tunes the model parameters, and finally the taxiway deviation probability distribution is given. By running the taxiway deviation risk model.