区域能源碳排放与旅游经济增长的耦合机制——以长株潭为例

Coupling mechanism of regional energy carbon emission and tourism economic growth: a case study of changzhutan

厘清旅游经济增长与能源碳排放之间的关系,对调控旅游业碳排放和发展低碳旅游具有重要意义。基于统计年鉴数据,测算了长株潭地区2006—2015年间能源碳排放总量,并通过构建旅游经济与能源碳排放脱钩分析模型以及协整、因果关系检验,从时空维度分析了长株潭区域能源碳排放与旅游经济增长的耦合效应与机制。结果表明:2006—2015年间长株潭区域能源碳排放量总体呈上升趋势;能源碳排放量与旅游经济增长除2010年为强脱钩以外,其余年份均为弱脱钩状态;长株潭区域脱钩程度由北向南逐渐显著;2006—2010年间,能源碳排放与旅游经济增长脱钩状况空间差异较为明显,2011—2015年间空间差异缩小,且呈现出一定程度的空间集聚;旅游经济增长与能源碳排放量之间相互影响,存在长期协整关系;能源碳排放量对旅游经济增长存在短期的促进关系,而旅游经济增长构成CO_2排放的Granger原因则并不显著。

It is of great significance to clarify the relationship between tourism economic growth and energy carbon emissions for the implementation of energy conservation ,emission reduction and the development of low-carbon tourism. Based on the statistical yearbook data, this paper calculates the total energy carbon emissions from the year of 2006 to 2015 in Chang-Zhu-Tan area, and analyzes the coupling effect between energy carbon emissions and tourism economic growth from the spatial and temporal dimensions by constructing the decoupling analysis model of tourism economy and energy carbon emissions and cointegration and causality test. The results showed that the total energy carbon emissions in Chang-Zhu-Tan region increased from 2006 to 2015. Energy carbon emissions and tourism economic growth except 2010 for strong decoupling, the rest of the year are weak decoupling; The regional decoupling degree of Chang-Zhu-Tan was gradually significant from north to south. The spatial difference between energy carbon emissions and tourism economic growth is obvious from 2006 to 2010, and the spatial difference between 2011 and 2015 decreases, and shows a certain degree of spatial agglomeration; There is a long-term cointegration relationship between tourism economic growth and energy carbon emissions. There is a short-term promotion relationship between energy carbon emissions and tourism economic growth, but the Granger reason of CO2 emissions is not significant.