晋陕蒙能源消费碳排放重心的移动轨迹及其动因

Center-of-gravity Movement Trajectory and the Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions in Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia

为衡量晋陕蒙地区能源消费碳排放重心空间格局的演变,文章利用2006年IPCC公布的碳排放计算方法,测算晋陕蒙地区2000-2016年的能源消费碳排放总量,使用时间序列曲线估计演化晋陕蒙地区能源消费碳排放重心的变化趋势,计算其重心的移动距离,最后利用相关分析法分析能源消费碳排放重心空间格局变化的影响因素。结果表明:晋陕蒙地区能源消费碳排放总量在逐年上升,能源消费碳排放重心在不断地移动,重心大致位于陕西省与山西省的中部接壤地带,2008年之前重心在陕西省,2008年之后转向山西省,总体呈现由西南向东北的变化趋势。通过时间序列的曲线估计2016年之后纬度方向上出现拐点,重心转而向东南方向发展。

To measure the evolution of the spatial pattern of energy consumption carbon emissions in Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia,this paper uses the carbon emissions calculation method published by the IPCC in 2006 to measure the total energy consumption carbon emissions from 2000 to 2016 in Shanxi,Shaanxi,Inner Mongolia and the use time series. The curve estimates the evolution trend of the energy consumption carbon emissions in the Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia regions,calculates the moving distance of its center of gravity,and finally uses the correlation analysis method to analyze the influencing factors of the changes in the spatial pattern of carbon emissions from energy consumption. The results show that the total carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shanxi,Shaanxi,and Inner Mongolia regions have been rising year by year,and the focus of carbon emissions from energy consumption has been continuously moving. The center of gravity is roughly located in the middle part of the border between Shaanxi Province and Shanxi Province. Prior to 2008,the focus was in Shaanxi Province,2008. Later,when it turned to Shanxi Province,the overall trend from southwest to northeast changed. The curve of the time series is estimated to have an inflection point in the direction of latitude after 2016,and the center of gravity turns to the southeast direction.