中国对“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家的投资潜力分析——基于投资非效率因素的研究

An Analysis of China's Investment Potential in the Countries Along the "Maritime Silk Road"——Based on the study of investment non-efficiency factors

按照地理区位和经济联系的紧密程度,将"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线国家分为四类,并通过修正投资非效率模型和随机前沿引力模型分别对影响中国在该区域直接投资的非效率因素和投资潜力进行了分析。实证结果表明:投资非效率因素中,"21世纪海上丝绸之路"战略和经济合作战略对投资非效率的影响不显著,市场接受程度、制度相似性等因素对投资非效率有抑制作用,而能源产量、腐败控制等因素有显著促进作用。在投资潜力方面,中国在"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线国家的投资潜力较大,且在不同区域之间呈现出差异性,其中,东盟国家投资潜力最小,海湾国家投资潜力最大。

According to the geographic location and the degree of economic ties, this paper divides the countries along the ＂maritime silk road＂ into four categories, and the non-efficiency factors which affect China＇s OFDI in the region and investment potentials are analyzed by modifying the investment non-efficiency model and the stochastic frontier gravity model respectively. The empirical results show that： Among the investment non- efficiency factors, ＂Maritime Silk Road＂ strategy and economic cooperation strategy have no significant effect on the non-efficiency of investment, the factors such as market acceptance and institutional similarity have a negative effect on the investment non-efficiency, and the factors such as energy production and corruption control play a significant promoting role. In terms of investment potential, China has a large investment potential in the countries along the ＂Maritime Silk Road＂, and there are differences between different regions. Among them, the ASEAN countries have minimum investment potential, the Gulf States have the largest investment potential.