工业高碳行业碳指标的收敛系数及相关性研究——以云南和广东为例

Research on Convergence Coefficient and Correlation of Carbon Index in High Carbon Trade-Taking Yunnan and Guangdong Province as Examples

本研究有利于发现我国低碳经济的区域差异性.碳排放的特征模型被用于识别某一工业行业是否是高碳行业.云南(经济落后地区的代表)和广东(经济发达地区的代表)的实证研究发现:前者的高碳行业为7个,而后者为14个.碳排放、碳强度收敛模型和相关性模型也被用于二者变化趋势的差异性的研究.实证研究发现:2006-2015年,两省碳排放的收敛性显著,而碳强度收敛呈阶段性.研究结果表明:(1)经济发达地区的工业高碳行业的集中度明显低于经济落后地区;(2)经济发达地区的碳强度存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,而经济落后地区的碳强度仅仅呈阶段性绝对β收敛,且不存在条件β收敛;(3)无论是经济发达还是落后地区,其工业高碳行业碳强度的绝对β收敛与碳排放绝对β收敛系数间均不存在显著相关关系.

This research is pr0pitious to find the regional differentiation of low carbon economy in China. The character model of carbon emission has been used to identify if one profession and trade of industry is high-carbon. The empirical study from Yunnan and Guangdong province finds that there are 7 high-carbon trades in Yunnan province which stands for the poorer region,and that there are 14 ones in Guangdong province which stands for the developed area. The convergence and the correlation models of carbon emission and carbon intensity have been used to find other differentiations. The empirical study finds that the carbon emissions＇ convergence of two provinces was remarkable from 2006 to 2015,and that their carbon intensity＇s convergence showed a periodic. The result shows：（ 1） the developed regions＇ concentration of trade are lower than the backward regions＇;（ 2） the developed regions ‘s carbon intensity appears the absolute and conditional β convergence,and the backward regions＇ only presents stage absolute β convergence;（ 3） there is no significant correlation between the absolute β convergence of carbon emissions and that of intensity in developed regions or backward ones.