连片特困地区物流经济对城镇化的影响机制

Impact Mechanism of Logistics Economy on Urbanization in Poverty Contiguous Destitute Areas

为分析连片特困地区物流经济对城镇化的影响,从人口城镇化、土地城镇化、经济城镇化和社会城镇化四个方面构建城镇化水平评估体系,采用熵权法对连片特困地区的城镇化水平进行评估,构建物流经济发展水平评价体系,建立城镇化与物流经济的多重线性回归模型和空间耦合模型,并以滇西连片特困山区的56个县为例,深入分析连片特困地区物流经济对城镇化的影响机制。研究发现:(1)整体空间上,滇西边境山区的综合城镇化水平由中部的芒市、隆阳区、施甸县和祥云县等向外围逐渐降低,与研究区域的人口、土地和社会的城镇化空间分异特征大体吻合,经济城镇化水平呈现波动状态,由西北部向东南递减。(2)公路通车里程在人口城镇化发展中的作用显著;土地城镇化受到社会固定资产投资的影响,系数为0. 005;社会消费品零售总额与货物运输总量对社会城镇化的影响显著,系数分别为0. 008和0. 007,对社会城镇化有明显的正效应;货物运输总量在经济城镇化中的回归系数为0. 017,相关性较强。(3)滇西边境山区物流经济与城镇化的空间耦合程度整体处于较低水平,且区域差异显著,整体空间协调程度呈现中部高外围低的态势。

In order to analyze the impact of logistic economy on urbanization in poverty contiguous destitute areas, the evaluation system of urbanization level was constructed from four aspects including population, land, economy and society. The entropy method was used to evaluate the urbanization level. Then the logistics economic development level evaluation system was built, as well as a multiple linear regression model and spatial coupling model of urbanization and logistics economy. In order to analyze the impact of logistic economy on urbanization, this paper took 56 counties in poverty contiguous destitute areas of western Yunnan as an example. The results showed that： ① In terms of overall space, the comprehensive urbanization level in the border areas of western Yunnan was gradually decreasing from the center like Mangshi, Longyang, Shidian and Xiangyun to the periphery, which were roughly in line with the urbanization level of three aspects involving population, land and society. The urbanization of economy fluctuated from northwest to southeast. ② Highway played a significant role in the urbanization of population; the urbanization of land was affected by the investment in social fixed assets with a coefficient of 0.005, the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the total freight transportation had a significant impact on the urbanization of society with coefficients of 0.008 and 0. 007 respectively. The regression coefficient of total freight transportation in the urbanization of economy was 0. 017. ③The spatial coupling between logistics economy and urbanization in the border mountainous areas of Yunnan Province was generally at a low level, with significant regional diversities. The overall spatial coordination showed the trend of high center and low periphery.