均衡困境与金融安全:国际货币制度变迁及问题

Equilibrium Dilemma and Financial Security: Institutional Evolution of the International Monetary System and its Problems

全球金融危机的爆发和对金融安全所产生的巨大影响,为国际货币体系的制度变迁创造了强大的外部动力,并使之成为二十国集团(G20)主导的全球金融治理改革的核心议程之一。随着危机影响的逐渐消散,国际货币体系改革陷入了"均衡困境",即国际货币体系的制度变迁在达到或持续趋近于最优状态之前,便停滞于某种相对稳定的状态,危机所创造的变迁动力逐渐减弱,主要国家行为体继续维持、接受或无力独自改变既有国际货币体系。在此均衡困境下,国际货币体系存在已久的诸多问题依然没有解决,主要包括主权货币充当国际货币的相关问题、汇率制度多样化以及随之而来的汇率波动和汇率失调、国际收支调节不力导致的宏观经济失衡、国际货币组织低效等。从国际货币制度变迁与金融安全的角度而言,后危机时期的改革并未带来一个更加安全的金融世界。

The outbreak of the 2008 global financial crisis and its continuing impact have created a powerful external impetus for the institutional changes of the international monetary system and made it a core agenda of the G20-led global financial governance reform. With the gradual dissipation of the negative effects of this crisis, the international monetary system reform has been plunged into an "equilibrium dilemma". That is to say, the institutional reforms of the international monetary system have stagnated and been loacated in a relatively stable state before the reforms reached an optimal state; the driving forces for institutional reforms generated by the crisis have gradually been weakened; major state actors continue to maintain and accept the existing international monetary system, unable to make any changes alone. In this dilemma, many long-standing problems in the international monetary system remain unsolved, including issues related to a sovereign currency acting as an international currency, the diversification of the exchange rate systems and the ensuing exchange rate fluctuations and misalignments, the macroeconomic imbalances caused by inadequate adjustment in balance of international payments as well as the inefficiency of the international monetary organizations. From the perspectives of international institutional changes and financial security, reforms in the post-crisis era have not created a safer financial world.