东亚金融区域主义的兴起及其地缘安全影响

The Rise of East Asian Financial Regionalism and Its Geo-Security Implications

2008年全球金融危机以后,国际货币金融体系持续动荡,以地区金融安全合作为导向的金融区域主义逐步兴起,且成为一种显著的地缘政治经济现象。金融区域主义对地缘安全的影响主要有两个方面:一是地区金融安全,地区金融主义有助于构筑地区金融安全网络,推动地缘经济整合;二是地缘政治安全,地区金融主义会扩大地区大国的地缘政治影响力以及增加地区排斥外围国家干涉本地事务的能力。金融区域主义产生的这些地缘安全影响对不同的行为主体而言,具有不同的意义。首先,东盟作为地区性的经济共同体,会极力反对东亚大国利用金融区域主义将东盟纳入其势力范围之下,威胁东盟的地缘政治安全环境。其次,作为最大出资方,中日对地区货币金融领导权的争夺变得日趋激烈,且形成了持续的冲突性关系,从而削弱了东亚金融安全合作的政治前景。最后,东亚作为美元回流机制中的关键一环,如果将美国排斥在外,无疑会增加东亚地区与美国的地缘政治矛盾。因而,东亚金融区域主义在兴起的过程中,不仅要看到其稳定地区货币金融秩序的一面,同时也要看到其有可能制造地缘政治安全问题的一面。

Given the continued instability in the international monetary and financial system, financial regionalism featuring regional financial security cooperation has gradually emerged as a significant geopolitical and economic phenomenon. The impact exerted by financial regionalism on geo-security mainly cover two aspects. One is regional financial security. Financial regionalism can help build a regional financial security network and promote the geo-economy integration. The other is geopolitical security. Financial regionalism can expand the geopolitical influence of regional powers and enhance their abilities to exclude extra-regional states from interfering in regional affairs. These geo-security effects generated by financial regionalism have different implications for different actors. Firstly, ASEAN, as a regional economic community, will strongly oppose the use of financial regionalism by East Asian powers to bring ASEAN under their sphere of influence which is thought to be a threat against the geopolitical security environment of ASEAN. Secondly, as the biggest financial contributors, China and Japan have been entangled in more fierce competition for regional monetary and financial leadership and their continual conflict and collision will undermine the political prospect for financial security cooperation in East Asia. Thirdly, East Asia, as a key link in the US dollar reflux mechanism, will undoubtedly exacerbate its geopolitical contradictions with the United States if the only supreme power is excluded. Therefore, East Asian financial regionalism, in the course of its rising, will not only stabilize regional monetary and financial order but also give rise to geopolitical security problems.