环境风险对中国煤电企业经济影响分析

Economic impact analysis of environmental risk on China's coal power enterprises

首先构建了煤电企业面临的环境风险分析总体框架,识别了关键的环境风险因素;然后以典型煤电机组为例,针对能效标准提高、环境保护税、全国碳市场、水资源税、产能过剩和非水可再生能源规划目标等风险因素设立综合情景,评估环境风险因素对煤电企业经济性的影响。结果表明各地区1 000 MW超超临界机组乐观情景及悲观情景的企业价值距合理回报预期企业价值相差小,而300 MW和600 MW亚临界机组因为能效水平低、经营成本高等原因在环境风险压力下企业价值偏离合理回报较多。随着环境风险严重程度的不断增加,有必要通过环境压力测试来识别与量化环境风险对煤电企业财务状况的影响,进而做出更加科学客观的中长期投资决策。

Firstly, the overall framework of environmental risk analysis faced by coal power enterprises was constructed, and key environmental risk factors were identified. Then taking a typical coal-fired power unit as an example, aiming at the risk factors such as increased energy efficiency standards, environmental protection tax, national carbon market, water resource tax, overcapacity and non-water renewable energy planning goals, a comprehensive scenario was set up to assess the impact of environmental risk factors on the economic performance of coal power enterprises. The results showed that the enterprise val- ue of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of 1 000 MW ultra-supercritical units in different regions differed little from the ex- pected enterprise value of reasonable return. However, due to the low energy efficiency and high operating costs, under the pressure of environmental risk, the value of enterprises with 300 MW and 600 MW subcritical units deviated much from reasonable return. With the increasing severity of environmental risk, it is necessary to identify and quantify the impact of environmental risk on the financial situation of coal-fired power enterprises through environmental pressure testing, and then make more scientific and objective investment decisions in the medium and long term.