美国退出伊核协议的原因与影响

The reason and influence of US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement

特朗普单方面退出伊核协议,既是美国敌视伊朗政策的结果,也是美国对伊朗实施更强硬政策的开端。遏制伊朗崛起步伐、在美伊博弈中谋求自身利益最大化、制造"可控混乱"刺激油价上涨、以色列绑架美国中东政策是美国退出伊核协议的主要原因。美国单方面退出伊核协议是典型的战略短视之举,使其"短期受益,长期受损"。美国将面临巨大的风险和挑战,主要体现在:制裁不会摧垮伊朗,反而使伊朗国内对美同仇敌忾;伊朗重启核活动使美国面临"战与和"的两难处境;美国霸权的制度基础和信用基础遭受严重损害。

Trump Administration＇s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement is not only the result of the U.S. hostile policy towards Iran, but also the beginning of the US tougher policy to Iran. Main reasons for the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA include containing Iran＇s rising pace, maximizing its own interests in the U.S.-Iranian game, creating ＂controllable turmoil＂ to stimulate oil prices, and defending Israel＇s interest. What the U.S. did about the JCPOA is a typical short-sighted strategic action, which makes the United States ＂benefits in the short term but suff ers in the long term＂, and faces enormous risks and challenges： sanctions cannot destroy Iran, but cause it to against the U.S.; the resumption of Iranian nuclear activities makes the United States faces the dilemma of ＂war or peace＂; the institutional and credit bases of American hegemony suff ers serious damage.