旅游发展会推动城市空间扩展吗?

Will Tourism Development Drive Urban Spatial Expansion?

基于1998—2015年中国的分省数据,利用随机效应与固定效应实证检验旅游发展对城市空间扩展的影响。研究发现,旅游发展对城市空间扩展有显著正向影响,东部、中部、西部地区的影响强度呈现区域差异,东部影响最大,西部地区旅游发展对城市空间扩展的影响强度大于中部地区。政府干预、信息化对旅游发展与城市空间扩展关系存在显著调节效应,国发【2009】41号文件出台,明显增强了旅游发展对城市空间扩展的推动作用,旅游依托省份相比非旅游依托省份,其旅游发展对城市空间扩展的边际影响力有显著提高;研究结果也表明,人口规模对城市空间扩展的影响呈现区域异质性,外商直接投资、政府干预度、信息化是驱动中国城市空间向外扩展的显著因素。

Urbanization is a coordinated process of growth in many areas,including the urban economy,culture,population,and spaces.Few studies have explored the impact of tourism development on urban spatial evolution quantitatively at the macro level.Based on the panel data in China's Mainland from 1998 to 2015,this paper uses random and fixed effects estimation methods to examine the impact of tourism development on urban spatial expansion.The results support the existing theory of tourism-led urbanization in China;i.e.,tourism development has a significantly positive effect on the expansion of urban spaces.Using four methods（i.e.,samples splitting,changing samples according to the explained variable,replacement of variables,and the introduction of interactive items for a robustness test）,the results show tourism development has significantly positive effect on the expansion of urban spaces along three influential vectors.First,the development of urban tourism drives the urban land-use expansion of tourism-related industries.Second,the development of rural tourism drives rural urbanization,which leads to the expansion of urban spaces.Third,the construction of urban brands during tourism development leads to industrial convergence,population agglomeration,and the emergence of second homes,which all contribute to the expansion of urban spaces.Regional differences were found in the impact of tourism development on the expansion of urban spaces.The greatest impact of tourism development on the expansion of urban spaces was observed in eastern China,and the impact of tourism development on the expansion of urban spaces in western China is stronger than that in central China.Both government interventions and informationization level have a significant regulatory effect on the relationship between tourism development and the expansion of urban spaces.This effect shows that the publication of State Council General Office Document No.41[2009] has obviously enhanced the impact of tourism development on the expansion of urban spaces.Compared with non-tourism-dependent provinces,the marginal influence of tourism development on the expansion of urban spaces for tourism-dependent provinces has been improved considerably.The results show that foreign direct investment,government intervention,and informationization are significant factors driving the expansion of urban spaces in China.However,the impact of population size on the expansion of urban spaces is heterogeneous by regions：i.e.,in the central and eastern regions,the population size positively correlates with the expansion of urban spaces,while it lacks obvious explanatory power for the expansion of urban spaces in western China.Thus,in the process of new types of urbanization with Chinese features,the tourism industry should be given greater inclusion in industrial undertakings;i.e.,each region should reasonably design its city and tourism planning at an urban spatial level.Thus,tourism functions should be prominently situated in the design of urban functions.In addition,tourism development brings the expansion of urban spaces,which may cause negative impacts on the local（such as the heat island effect or reduced biodiversity） and cultural ecosystems,and may also lead to urban diseases.Therefore,it is necessary for tourism destinations to carefully assess the negative effects of tourism development on urban spatial expansion for sustainable development of tourism and urbanization.