产业集聚与居民住房支付能力——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

Industrial Agglomeration and Housing Affordability:An Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

基于我国31个省区市2006—2016年的面板数据,考察产业集聚与居民住房支付能力之间的关系,结果表明:地区之间第二产业发展不平衡的现象已有所改观,但在房价收入比方面地区差异依然较为明显,东中部地区居民面临的住房压力较大;产业集聚和居民住房支付能力呈显著的倒U型关系。在产业集聚初期,居民住房支付能力和产业集聚之间表现出显著的正向关系,但当产业集聚达到临界值时,居民住房支付能力和产业集聚的二次项之间呈显著的负向关系,产业集聚开始对居民住房支付能力起反作用。此外,人口密度、就业人员工资、环境污染情况对居民住房支付能力具有显著的反向作用,而能源工业固定资产投资的增加能够提高居民住房支付能力。

Based on panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and cities in China from 2006 to 2016, this paper exam- ines the relationship between industrial agglomeration and housing affordability. The results indicate that the imbalance in the development of the secondary industry between regions has been improved, but the regional differences in the ratio of house price to income are still more obvious. Residents in the eastern and central regions are facing greater housing pressure. There exists a significantly inversed-U relationship between industrial agglomeration and residents＇ housing affordability. In the early stage of industrial agglomeration, there is a significant positive relationship between housing affordability and industrial agglom- eration. However, when the industrial agglomeration reaches the critical value, there is a significant negative relationship between housing affordability and the quadratic term of industrial agglomeration, and industrial agglomeration begins to counteract housing affordability. In addition, factors such as population density, employnlent wages and environmental pollution have a significant negative effect on housing affordability, and the increase in fixed assets investment in the energy industry can improve housing affordability.