农村居民太阳能热水器采纳及使用决策:序列决策模型研究

Residents' Solar Water Heater Adoption and Using Behavior in Rural China:A Sequential Decision Approach

鼓励农村居民采纳和使用太阳能热水器,对于应对我国环境恶化及能源短缺具有重大的意义。基于江西省972个农村居民的调查数据,通过构建序列决策模型,研究农村居民采纳及使用太阳能热水器的决定因素。结果表明,地理因素、家庭属性及人口特征在影响农村居民采纳和使用太阳能热水器的决策上发挥着不同作用;农户的补贴政策感知对其采纳决策具有重要影响,而农户的技术感知能显著提升其使用水平。研究结论对进一步提升农村太阳能热水器的普及和使用具有重要的政策启示。

It is of significant importance to encourage rural residents to adopt and use solar water heaters （SWH） in response to China’s environmental degradation and energy shortage.By using a survey sample of 972 rural residents from Jiangxi Province in southern China,this paper applied a sequential decision approach to empirically investigate the factors that affect individual rural residents’ sequential decisions on whether to adopt as well as their degree of engagement in the use of SWHs.Results showed that geographic factors,household attributes,and rural resident characteristics play different roles in influencing rural residents’ adoption decisions and their usage engagement decisions.Furthermore,rural residents’ awareness of subsidy policy for SWHs is crucial in determining whether to adopt in the first decision stage,and rural residents’ awareness of SWH technology exerts a positive influence on how much they use SWHs.These results provide insights into identifying effective policy instruments to motivate rural residents to adopt SWHs and ensure success of such policies.