厦门市医疗卫生服务体系建设情况及预测

Construction and forecast of medical and health service system in Xiamen

目的:预测厦门市医疗卫生服务体系人力资源发展趋势,为相关卫生部门提供政策意见。方法:基于《全国医疗卫生服务体系规划纲要(2015-2020年)》的指标要求,从2001至2016年统计年鉴中获取数据,建立时间序列模型对2017-2020年发展情况进行预测。结果:每千人口拥有的床位数和医师数量提前达标,每千常住人口拥有的护士数量预计在2020年达标。但每千常住人口拥有的公共卫生人员及医护比指标预计在2020年不能达到《规划》要求。结论:建议厦门市相关政府部门适当减缓医疗卫生硬件建设及投入,大力支持公共卫生机构建设。其他地市可借鉴本研究预测医疗卫生人力资源变化。

Objective： To forecast the development trend of human resources in Xiamen medical and health service system so as to provide policy advice for relevant health departments. Methods： Based on the requirements of the National Medical and Health Service System Program （2015-2020）, the data were obtained from the 2001-2016 Xiamen statistical yearbook, and a time series model was established to predict the development of the system in 2017-2020. Results： The number of beds and doctors per 1,000 residents reached the standard ahead of schedule, and the number of nurses per 1,000 permanent residents was expected to reach the standard by 2020. However, the target of general physicians per 1,000 permanent residents and the ratio of physicians and nurses were not expected to meet the requirements of the Plan by 2020. Conclusion： It is suggested that the relevant government departments in Xiamen should slow down the construction and investment of medical and health hardware, but vigorously support the construction of public health institutions. Other cities can learn from this study to predict changes in medical and health human resources.