气候冲击、海外白银输入与社会动乱——来自清代华北平原的经验证据

Climate shock,overseas silver inflow and social revolt——empirical evidences from the North China Plain in the Qing dynasty

为研究气候冲击与海外白银输入是否是导致近代传统农业经济社会发生动荡并走向衰落的重要原因,运用历史计量学方法,对华北平原地区气候冲击、海外白银输入与社会动乱进行分析。研究发现,海外白银输入对清代的经济社会具有双重影响:从海外输入白银存量、流量来看,它具有扩充市场化与商业化水平,有助于社会稳定的正面作用;但由于白银输入所引发的银铜比价紊乱却对社会稳定产生了负面冲击;气候冲击对社会稳定的影响未得到验证,说明导致传统中国走向衰落的因素可能更多地来自经济金融因素,而非直接源自气候冲击。这些结论对理解气候和海外白银两大冲击下的清王朝衰落机制提供了计量经济学证据。

To study whether climate shock and oversea upheaval and fall of economics in traditional agricuhural historical methodology to make analysis on climate shock in silver inflow are important reasons leading to socity North in recent centuries, this paper used China Plain, overseas silver inflow and social turbulence. Study shows that inflow of overseas silver had double-sided effects on economy and society in Qing dynasty： on the one hand, the stock and flow of foreign silver had positive effect as in stabilizing the society by enhancing market and commercialized level; on the other hand, the inflow of foreign silver caused upheaval in silver-copper exchange rate, which had negative effect on social stability. The impact of climate shock on social stability was not validated by our data, which indicates that economic, or financial factors might be mo~ important than climate factor in the falling of Qing dynasty. This conclusion is helpful in providing the econometric proof to the mechanism in studying the fall of Qing dynasty under impact of climate and oversea silver inflow.