城投债利率水平区域差异性研究——基于2002-2016年省份数据的分析

A Study of Regional Differences in Interest Rates of Urban Investment Bonds Based on Provincial Data from 2002 to 2016

从期限结构考察城投债的利率水平,并比较不同省份的差异性。研究结果表明:城投债期限均值为5. 6238年,主要类型是中期债券,其利率水平最高,约为6. 37%;显著高于长期债券5. 37%和短期债券利率3. 67%的均值水平。一方面,长期期限的城投债资金多投向于公共设施建设领域,政府项目安全系数高,违约风险小;另一方面,短期期限的城投债持有期较短,风险溢价补偿程度低。但不同省份的地方政府债的票面利率不存在显著性差异,一方面,发达地区债务总量占地区生产总值比例高,导致较高的风险溢价;另一方面,发达地区资本市场更加流畅,降低其流动性成本,两种作用相互抵消。此外,政府债务主要投向基础设施建设,并依赖于土地市场维持债务的可持续性。建议中央政府严格规范地方政府融资平台的运作,并明确债务上限。

This paper investigates the interest rate of urban investment bonds from the term structure and compares the differences between different provinces.The results show that the average duration of urban investment bonds is 5.6238 years,and the main type is medium-term bonds,with the highest interest rate,about 6.37%.This is significantly higher than the average of 5.37% for long-term bonds and 3.67% for short-term ones.On the one hand,long-term urban investment bonds are mostly invested in the field of public facilities construction,with high safety coefficient of government projects and low default risk.On the other hand,short-term urban investment bonds have a short holding period and low risk premium compensation.However,there is no significant difference in the coupon rate of local government bonds in different provinces.On the one hand,the total debt in developed regions accounts for a high proportion of regional GDP,leading to a high risk premium;on the other hand,capital markets in developed regions are more fluent,reducing their liquidity costs,and the two effects are offset.In addition,government debt is heavily invested in infrastructure and relies on the land market to sustain debt sustainability.It is recommended that the central government strictly regulate the operation of local government financing platforms and clarify the debt ceiling.