摘要
本文基于时间序列移动平均技术，对我国生产者价格指数（PPI）与消费者价格指数（CPI）走势偏离程度进行了测度，并从我国工业企业库存的角度分析其对PPI与CPI走势背离的影响。研究发现：以中国月度定基价格水平测算，2011—2016年PPI偏离CPI长达61个月低位运行，走势背离持久性和程度创历史最大值；我国大中型工业企业年度新增库存是CPI与PPI背离的格兰杰原因，反之不然；近年来，供给侧结构改革使PPI背离CPI的状况得以修正。分析结果表明，中国工业行业投资结构调整的前瞻性明显不足，应加强行业产能与结构的科学预测。
Based on the time-series moving average technology, the deviation degree of China＇s producer price index （PPI） and consumer price index （CPI） is measured, and the influence of PPI and CPI deviation is analyzedfrom the perspective of China＇s industrial enterprise inventory. The study found that, based on China＇s monthly fixed base price level, the PPI from 2011 to 2016 deviated from the CPI for a period of 61 months, and the persistence and degree of deviation reached a historical maximum, the annual new inventory of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises is the Granger reason of the deviation., but not vice versa.in recent years, the supply-side structural reform has corrected the PPI＇s departure from the CPI. The analysis results show that the forward-looking nature of China＇s industrial sector investment structure adjustment is obviously insufficient, and the scientific prediction of industry capacity and structure should be strengthened.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第8期102-105,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社科基金青年项目“基于国家资金流量表的中国金融稳定性监测研究”(18CTJ003)
山西省应用统计与社会调查研究生教育创新研究项目“CPI与PPI走势背离的影响因素分析”(K308001)
山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目“我国收入分配对经济增长的影响机制及效应研究”(2017253)
