粮食托收政策改革对主要粮食作物种植结构影响研究

Study on the Impact of Grain Collection Policy Reform on the Planting Structure of Main Grain Crops

本文基于历年粮食统计数据，分析粮食托收政策改革对主要粮食品种种植格局分布的影响，研究表明，在粮食托收政策改革出台以来，一方面，从新一轮的粮食托收政策改革在2015-2016年的作用来看，基本实现了调减玉米种植面积、扩大豆类种植面积，适当增加优质稻谷．稳定稻谷增收的政策目标。另一方面，主产区在体现政策改革效应明显，表现为稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆和薯类的主产区总量波动贡献率分别为-91．05％、176．96％、73．73％、30．72％和55．78％，且大于时间效应,即主产区与非主产区增加值远大于随时间推移的增收量。这表明：粮食托收政策改革优化了主要粮食作物种植格局。

In recent years, with the steady rise of food demand structure, food supply side and demand side coupling fault, lack of effective supply, food market upside down, by the insufficient food into structural contradiction in food, which is the key to food supply side. Therefore, based on the statistical data of main grain in 2003-2017, this paper empirically analyzes the dynamic impact of grain reform policy on the distribution of planting pattern of main grain varieties. The research shows that the first is the policy effect of rice, wheat and corn in their main producing areas. Among them, maize yield has the highest contribution rate, followed by rice and wheat, while soybean and potato have been reduced to different degrees; second, the main producing area effect is greater than the time effect, showing a total increase in the total amount of major food crops, a single cropping structure and regional Differentiating trends, such as differentiation, and on this basis, from the aspects of overall grain allocation, adjustment of grain structure, and promotion of peasants＇ income increase, several suggestions were put forward to deepen the reform of grain feeding policy and improve the grain feeding policy system.