基于集对分析的航空公司安全风险评估研究

Onthe safety risk assessment of the airlines based on the set pair analysis

本文试图从新的角度出发,针对航空公司运营过程中的安全管理系统,提出一种安全评价方法。为此,我们首先应用SHEL模型的人、机、环境、管理系统理论,结合民航相关标准对航空安全系统中的风险因素指标进行了探讨,并最终确立了航空公司风险评价指标体系。然后,采用熵权法和超标倍数法综合的赋权法确定各个风险指标的权重。考虑各风险指标在评估中的不确定性,引入集对分析理论进行建模分析,并给出基于集对分析模型的航空公司安全风险评价模型及算法。实例仿真计算结果表明,评价结果与实际情况吻合较好,而且集对分析模型可以较好地解决风险评估中的不确定性问题,能够为航空公司的风险评估提供理论支持。

The paper intends to propose a safety assessment method for the airline safety management system with the airline operation process from the point of view of a new observation angle. For this purpose, we have first of all established an airline risk as- sessment system in combination with the SHEL model and that of the set-pair analysis. Secondly, we have made an exploration of the risk-involving factor indexes in the airline safety system in our analysis, which can be chosen as the input parameters of the set pair analysis model. And, thirdly, we have also analyzed the influential factors in the airline safety system, which can be roughly divided into 4 categories, that is, the human factor, the hardware factor, the software factor and the environmental factor. What is more, on the basis of the exploration of the aforementioned airline safety system, we have also worked out an evaluation model for the airline safety system through the risk factor indexes to meet the demands for such principles as those of ＂ scientific＂ , ＂ comprehensive＂, ＂ systematic＂, ＂ comparability＂, ＂ applicability＂ and so on. Furthermore, we have also managed to determine the weight of each index through evaluation of the unreasonable sub- jectivity and the difference in the evaluation criteria by using the comprehensive weighing method of the entropy method and the multiple overweight method so as to get rid of the erroneous conclusion. In accordance with our experience, such a risk evalua- tion system can be simulated and evaluated by using the above model so as to ensure an integrated evaluation procedure of the airline safety system. And, finally, we have chosen 5 basic airlines at an airport as our case study sample to demonstrate how to use the set of airline operation risk analysis and evaluation model. The risk evaluation results of the above said methods indicates that the evaluation results we have gained well in accord with the actual situation, which can be said qualified enought to meet the safety demands of the airline safety operation system.