LNG船舶内河航运安全定量风险管控研究

On the quantitative safety risk management of the LNG inland waterway transportation

为实现能源结构调整和节能减排,我国不断推进LNG内河航运应用,其船舶航行安全风险管控受到重视。基于贝叶斯网络进行安全分析,获得LNG船舶内河航行定量风险管控（QRM）条件。以广州市珠江南、北航道航行条件和周边情况为案例,根据国际通用定量风险评价标准,对不同运载量LNG船舶的航行安全管控的限定条件进行定量分析,确定在不同航道航行船舶流量条件下允许的LNG船舶运载量及通航船次,阐明关于内河航道的LNG船舶日航次数及载量的定量管控分析方法。结果表明：可基于个人和社会风险评价标准,制定LNG航道的公众敏感区及管理规定;对于一定船舶流量的航道,可得到LNG船舶运载量及通航次数限定。建立的QRM方法为LNG内河船运规划和管理提供了依据。

The paper is aimed at presenting a method for quantitative risk management （QRM） for the safety of the LNG inland navigation by using a Bayesian network for accidents of LNG shipping in the inland waterways, including the ordinary loss of the tanks, valves and connecting pipelines and the various traffic accidents. For the said purpose, we have managed to work out the probabilities of the various traffic accidents with the IWRAP MK II model and the QRM criteria boundaries for the LNG navigation safety based on the technology of the quantitative risk assessment （QRA）. And, next, we have managed to formulate and illustratethe procedures of the consequence analysis and the individual and societal risk assessment joint with the common international standards of QRA for the LNG safety. And, then, we have been trying to apply the developed QRM to the investigation of the safety regulations for LNG navigation in the northern and southern watert ways of the Pearl River areas in Guangzhou, by taking into account the navigation conditions and the surrounding geographical circumstances. For example, once we can get to know the total daily traffic rate of the passing ships, it would be possible for us to lay corresponding regulations for the LNG navigation safety according to the different risk tolerance criteria as the allowance curves of the carrying capability and the traffic volume of the LNG cargos shipping in those inland waterways. And, consequently, it would be possible for us to build up and stipulate the safety management regulations for the navigation based on the IMO social risk assessment criteria and the public sensitive areas according to the American personnel risk assessment standard. For the inland waterways, with the total daily traffic rate of ships, the management conditions between the LNG loading capacity and the traffic number of the LNG ships can be calculated and determined through the social risk assessment. Thus, we would like to realize that it is of great need to restrict and confine the maximal limit of the navigation loading sum-total of the various ships. For the above said reasons, the QRM we have developed is surely feasible and available to take as a basis for LNG shipping safety management and water navigation and transportation planning.