基于系统动力学的仓库火灾事故影响因素分析

Analysis of the influential factors on the fire accidents in the warehouse based on system dynamic theory

仓库的使用范围非常广泛,而仓库火灾造成的社会影响和损失亦不容忽视。为预防仓库火灾事故,减少事故损失,有必要对影响仓库火灾事故的因子进行分析,以便防患于未然。构建仓库火灾事故安全水平的影响因子体系,并分析影响因子间的因果关系,应用系统动力学方法建立SD方程,构建了系统动力学模型。选取宁夏弘德物流包装有限公司的物流仓库对模型进行运行分析和验证。结果表明,不同变量条件下适当增加安全投入或改变子系统的安全投入比例,均可以提高仓库火灾事故的安全水平,且在不同方案条件下事故安全水平的变化速度也不同。

The given paper is aimed at presenting a model of the likely influential factors on the fire accident in a warehouse based on the .system dynamic method in hoping to reduce and prevent from such fire accidents and in turn to raise the level of the ware- house safety control. We have also analyzed the cause-and-effect relationship among the factors, and studied the factors on how to influence the total safety level of the system. Based on the above analysis of the fire accidents in the warehouse, we would like to classify the related factors according to their own specific features, and, next, combined with the selected cases and the missing factors that the expertise would like to add up. Thus, we have finally established an influential factor system on the fire disasters in the warehouse by removing the minor interrelated factors through careful selection. Based on the system thinking mode and the SD principle, we should also analyze all the subsystems of pa- rameters and establish a diagram chart of the corresponding subsystems, from which the top-level general flow diagram system has been set up. Besides, we have also built up the causative and resultant diagram of the fire accidents in the case of the warehouse, and formulated a system dynamics equation with the system dynami.cs method. And, next, we have selected Ningxia Hongde Logistics Co., Ltd. , trying to run the model with a software named Vensim. Thus, the operational results indicate that an appropriate increase in the total safety input can help to heighten the overall level of the system safety. In addition, we have laid out two situations to verify the validity of the model, and compared the results to testify the model＇ s validity. The results of the above investigation show that the system safety level of the warehouse can be improved by increasing the total safety input appropriately or changing the safety input ratio of the subsystems, so that an appropriate increase in the total safety input can make the safety control level of the fire accidents in the warehouse more efficiently and successfully.