交通投资、经济空间集聚与多样化路径——空间面板回归与结构方程模型视角

Transport investment, economic spatial aggregation, and multiple paths:A joint estimation by spatial panel and structural equation modeling

交通投资作为经济增长的加速器备受空间规划与发展政策的重视,其对经济增长的多样化影响一直是研究热点。然而,交通投资对经济的影响机理及路径仍存在争议,且较缺乏地理差异和空间关联的视角。为了全面理解交通投资对经济的空间集聚效应与多样化路径,首先基于1997-2015年中国交通投资与经济增长的省际数据,采用空间面板回归(Spatial Panel Regression)分析考虑空间关联的交通投资的经济影响,随后采用结构方程模型理解交通投资对经济增长的多样化路径。结果表明:(1)无论是混合最小二乘回归(Pooled OLS)、固定效应面板模型还是空间面板回归,都显示了交通投资对经济增长的显著作用。空间面板回归结果指出交通投资有利于经济活动空间集聚,但考虑空间自相关影响后,对经济增长作用呈现降低;(2)交通投资的经济影响具有地理差异与时滞效应,其对东部地区的经济作用明显高于中西部地区,且有利于空间集聚;随着时间的推移,交通投资的经济效应逐渐增强;当前投资和前期投资对经济增长均有促进作用,但前期投资效果更显著,并驱动经济活动的空间分散;(3)在影响路径上,交通投资对经济的直接效应低于间接效应,多样化影响路径主要通过增加关联产业投资、促进就业增长、推进城镇化等方式产生。

As one of the significant economic development tools, the transport investment＇s comprehensive economic effects considering spatiotemporal heterogeneity have attracted attention from different levels of government and private development sectors. Much of current literature, however, lacks a perspective of spatial differences and spatial linkages, and the relevant economic influential paths still need to be further examined. To fill this understanding gap, the paper attempts to understand the economic growth and spatial aggregation effects of transport investment and the potential influential paths based on a joint estimation by the spatial panel and structural equation modeling, respectively. The results of the study indicate that：（1） The significant economic growth, as well as economic impacts of spatial aggregation of transport investment are observed, but in general the effects would decrease after controlling the spatial autocorrelation issue;（2） The economic effects of the investment in transport sectors have considerable spatial and temporal differences. For areas with high level of urbanization and economic performance, the economic effect of transport investment is much higher and more significant. To some extent, transport investment in these areas exerts a more significant impact of spatial aggregation. The temporal effects show that from 1997 to 2015 the transport investment can reinforce the economic performance and the level of spatial aggregation. Also,the transport investments at the previous stage, in general, have a greater effect on economic growth, and would lead to a spatial decentralization trend of economic activities;（3） Transport investment can promote economic growth by direct and a variety of indirect pathways. The indirect pathways can affect the investments on the related industries, labor growth, and urbanization. These findings would provide some policy implications for the decision-making of transport investment in urban China.