“大国协调”与“大妥协”:条约网络、银行团与辛亥革命的路径

Concert of Powers and the Grand Compromise:The Network of Treaties, the Banking Consortium and the Path of the 1911 Revolution

基于“妥协-限权宪法-自由与繁荣”这一联想链条，一些研究者将辛亥革命中的南北妥协、清帝逊位视为一个包含发展出“限权宪法”潜能的政治妥协事件。这一联想机制基于一种良好愿望，但与辛亥革命的历史进程之间存在着极大的脱节。1911—1912年，英、法、美、德、日、俄六强在中国问题上达成的“大国协调”是塑造“大妥协”走向的关键性外因：列强拒绝给予深陷财政困境的清廷与南京临时政府任何一方贷款。强调只有一个更加稳定的、能够代表全中国的政府才能获得列强的财政支持，并支持袁世凯尽快获得实权。这一协调的制度基础是列强之间在辛亥革命前形成的条约网络与银行团机制。列强的“大国协调”加速了“大妥协”的达成，这一妥协对于多民族国家保持统一具有积极意义，但其中包含着的共和政治建设共识极其稀薄；同时，列强对袁世凯的支持不断拉大中国国内两大阵营的资源差距，加上国家机器的碎片化带来的困境，使得这场妥协极难产生一些当代论者所期待的“限权宪法”的结果。

Based upon a chain of associative inference from ＂compromise＂ to ＂limited government＂, and finally to ＂liberty and prosperity＂, some researchers regard the compromise between the North and the South and the abdication of the Qing Emperor as an event of political compromise prone to a ＂limited government＂. This associative inference is based upon some good wishes detached from the political process of the 1911 Revolution. A study on the dynamism of the revolution indicates that the ＂concert of powers＂ by Britain, France, the U.S., Germany, Japan, and Russia in 1911-1912 is the key external cause of the compromise： great powers refused to provide financial support the Qing Court or the Nanjing Provisional Government on the verge of bankruptcy, and insisted that only a stable government representing the whole China could borrow money from them. The infrastructural institutions of this last concert of the Vienna System is a network of treaties and an international banking consortium formed before the revolution. The concert of powers accelerated the ripening of the grand compromise propitious to the unity of the mulita-national state, but also led to the lack of substantial consensus on the domestic republican political order. The great powers＇ support of Yuan Shikai further enlarged the imbalance of resources between the revolutionary camp and the Beiyang Clique. The revolution also deepened the fragmentation of the state. Under such circumstances, it is highly improbable that such a power structure could produce any meaningful ＂limited government＂.