出口持续期延长有利于出口国内技术复杂度提升吗——基于中国微观出口数据的验证

Would Longer Export Duration Help Improve Domestic Technical Complexity of Export——Evidence from China's Product Export Data

本文在对出口持续期影响一国出口国内技术复杂度机制分析的基础上,基于中国2000—2014年HS6位数出口数据,构建了既能剔除进口中间品的影响又能反映产品异质性的出口国内技术复杂度,并测度了产品出口持续期,进而研究了出口持续期对中国出口国内技术复杂度的影响。研究结果表明:中国出口国内技术复杂度总体上呈缓慢上升趋势;中国产品出口持续期较短,持续期中位值为2年,且出口目的地为中、高收入国家和出口产品为中、高技术产品时生存概率更高;产品出口持续期对出口国内技术复杂度有显著正向影响,自贸区(FTA)、人力资本、贸易开放度和出口目的国人均GDP对其也有正向影响,而产品价格、以加工贸易参与全球价值链和产品出口额则对其有负向影响,但上述影响会因不同目的地分组、产品技术分类分组和数据的不同"删失"处理方法而有显著的异质性。本文建议中国在制定可持续发展出口政策时应关注提高产品在出口前期的存活率,且应避免过高的加工贸易份额,以免中国出口产品陷入"低端锁定"。

Based on an analysis of the mechanism how export duration affects the Do- mestic Technical Complexity of Export （ DTCE）, this paper constructs an improved index system of measuring DTCE, considering both intermediate products and heterogeneous products. Then it further measures the export duration of China and its effect on DTCE using China export trade data at the HS 6-digit product level from 2000 to 2014. What the paper finds are as follows. Firstly, China＇s DTCE takes a slow upward trend from 2000 to 2014. Secondly, China＇s export duration is relatively short at a median of 2 years but probably longer for medium- and high-level technology export products and for medium- or high-level income countries. Thirdly, China＇s DTCE is affected significantly and positively by the product export duration, FTA, human capital, trade openness and per capita GDP of export destination countries. Whereas, export price, involvement in global value chain by processing trade and respective export volume have negative effect on China＇s DTCE, which, however, is significantly heterogeneous in respect of groupings of destination countries, product technology, and even ＂ censored ＂ data processing methods. The implications for China＇s export policy makers are that more efforts should be directed to improve export survival rate in the starting years, and to lower export volume of processing trade, a rather high share of which would take China＇s export into ＂low-end lock＂.