北京市西城区流感病毒感染与气象因素的相关关系

Correlation between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in Xicheng District of Beijing

目的了解北京市西城区流感病毒流行情况与气象因素的相关关系。方法收集北京市西城区2013年第27周—2016年第26周的流感病原学监测数据及同期的气象因素情况,对二者的相关关系进行多因素logistic回归分析。结果 2013年第27周—2016年第26周北京市西城区流感样病例病原学监测流感病毒核酸阳性率为16.58%,流感病毒流行高峰为每年10月—次年3月。多因素分析结果显示,与流感病毒核酸检测结果拟合最好的为发病日前1天的气象因素,主要的影响因素包括年龄、平均气温、最低气温、平均相对湿度和最小相对湿度。其中50～64岁年龄组流感病毒感染风险最高(OR=4.194);平均气温在0℃以下及最低气温在-5℃以下,平均相对湿度和最小相对湿度低于20%是流感病毒核酸阳性的危险因素。结论北京市西城区流感病毒流行的季节性特点与气温和相对湿度相关,在气温或平均湿度较低时,应做好流感病毒流行的预防控制工作。年龄是流感病毒感染的危险因素,老年人为流感防控的重点人群。

[Objective]To knowthe correlation between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in Xicheng District of Beijing.[Methods] From 27th week in 2013 to 26th week in 2016,the results of virological surveillance and meteorological factors in Xicheng District of Beijing were collected,andthe multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assessthe relationship betweenthem.[Results] Etiological surveillance of influenza like cases showedthatthe positive rate of influenza virus nucleic acid was 16.58% in Xicheng District of Beijing from 27th week in 2013 to 26th week in 2016,andthe peak of influenza was October to March ofthe next year. Multivariate analysis showedthatthe meteorological factors one day beforethe onset ofthe disease hadthe best fit tothe influenza virus nucleic acid detection results. The main influencing factors included age,average temperature,minimum temperature,average relative humidity and minimum relative humidity. People aged 50-64 years old hadthe highest risk of influenza virus infection （OR=4.194）. The mean temperature below 0 ℃,the minimum temperature below-5 ℃,the mean relative humidity orthe minimum humidity below 20% werethe risk factors for positive influenza vi rus nucleic acid.[Conclusion]The seasonal characteristics of influenza epidemic in Xicheng District of Beijing are related to air temperature and relative humidity. It is necessary to strengthenthe prevention and control of influenza when temperature or mean humidity is low. Age is a risk factor for influenza virus infection,andthe elderly arethe focus of influenza prevention and control.