导弹突防概率解析与仿真计算结果差异分析

Analysis of Missile Penetration Probability Difference between Analytic Computation and Simulation Computation

建立了初、中、末各阶段统一的弹道导弹突防概率解析计算和蒙特卡罗仿真计算模型,分别计算了2种模型在攻击弹头数略饱和时(即识别出的攻击弹头数略大于拦截弹数)给定算例的结果,并分析了两者差异产生的原因。结果表明:预警和拦截过程各环节的非独立性导致解析计算和仿真计算结果的差异,其中仿真计算模型能考虑到各环节的非独立性,更符合真实情况。

The analytic and simulation computation methods with the same formula of boost,midcourse and terminal phases are established for the ballistic missile penetration probability. The given examples＇ results from both methods are computed on condition that the attack warheads are slightly over saturation（ i. e. the number of attack warheads is slightly greater than number of interceptors）,and the reason for the difference between the two methods is analyzed. Results indicate that procedure dependence between the warning and interception courses is the main cause,and the simulation method which has the ability to account the dependence problem is more close to the reality.