航空器轮胎爆破事故量化分析与预防方法研究

Quantitative Analysis and Prevention Methodology of Tire-burst Aviation Accident

在对传统重要度优缺点开展分析并扩展航空事故重要性分析的基础上,提出了一种新的航空事故重要度定义和求解方法。以飞机轮胎爆破事故为例,给出了航空事故Bow-tie模型的建模方法和具体步骤,提出了利用基本事件和环节事件发生概率直接计算航空事故发生可能性的定量求解方法。从数值上建立了危险源与航空事故发生后果的量化联系,并提出了一种基于Bow-tie模型的航空事故预防对策和控制措施生成机制,为有效预防、控制和缓解各类航空事故提供了依据。

By analyzing the merits and demerits of traditional important measures,their definitions are expanded to the aviation accident importance analysis. A new aviation accident important measure and its solution are proposed. Taking the tire burst accident as an example,the method and process of the aviation accident＇s Bow-tie model are provided to efficiently and directly display the relation between basic and outcomes events. The solution which can directly compute the possibility of each aviation accident＇s outcome by the probabilities of basic events and link events is provided,and the solution builds a quantitative relation between hazards and outcomes of aviation accidents. According to the computational results,a universal methodology to generate aviation accident＇ s preventive measures and mitigate control measures is suggested,it＇ s feasible and property are testified by the example of the tire burst accident.