中国化肥投入管制的时空演化及影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Drivers of Chemical Fertilizer Input’s Control in China

运用脱钩弹性方程,分析了1980-2015年中国各地区（除港澳台地区外）的化肥投入与农业增长耦合关系和化肥投入变动的管制效果;通过LMDI模型,将化肥投入变动影响因素分解为产值规模效应、化肥效益效应和科技效应。研究表明：随着农业经济的迅速发展,中国的化肥投入可以分为＂增量管制＂和＂减量管制＂2个阶段,减量管制阶段的化肥投入增速明显低于增量管制阶段,其中东部地区的化肥投入率先减量;脱钩弹性系数在增量管制阶段末期达到最高值后,呈现出逐渐降低的趋势,各地区的管制效果与化肥投入管制方向基本相同;科技效应驱动了各地区化肥投入的减少,化肥效益效应是化肥投入增加的推动力,各效应在增量管制和减量管制阶段的驱动方向保持一致,其中东部地区的化肥效益效应贡献率较大,同时科技效应贡献率的绝对值也相对高,西部地区农业增产模式较为粗放。随着化肥投入减量管制的深入,要在重视空间差异的基础上,不断提高化肥增产效率、增强现代农业的外部替代作用。

This paper analyzes the decoupling relationship between chemical fertilizer input and agricultural growth by decoupling elasticity equation in China from 1980 to 2015.The effect of variable control of chemical fertilizer input, decomposes the influencing factors of chemical fertilizer inputs＇ change into output-scale effect, benefit effect and technological effect are evaluated by LMDI. With the rapid development of agricultural economy, the chemical fertilizer can be divided into ＂incremental control stage＂ and ＂reduction control stage＂. The growth rate of chemical fertilizer in reduction control stage was lower than that in incremental control stage, and the chemical fertilizer input in the Eastern China took the lead in reducing. The chemical fertilizer input and agricultural growth in, China has always been in a relatively decoupled state since 1981 to 2015.And the decoupling elasticity reached the highest value at the end of the delta control（1996-2000）, after that it showed a gradual decreasing trend. The agricultural production has not been affected by the reduction of chemical fertilizer input. Nationwide, 8 regions showed expanded negative decoupling, and yet 6 regions showed expansive links at the end of the stage of delta control. The large increase of fertilizer input in each region of China was accompanied by rapid agricultural development. Each region was basically the same as the control direction of China＇s fertilizer input at the end of the stage of reduction control（2011-2015）. The technology effect drove the reduction of chemical fertilizer input, and the effect was consistent in two control stages. The contribution rate of benefit effect was larger in Eastern China, where the absolute value of the technological effect＇s contribution rate was relatively high. To reduce the use of chemical fertilizers, on one hand, we should continuously improve the utilization efficiency of chemical fertilizer by using soil testing formula and variable control technology, so as to achieve the purpose of increasing agricultural production. On the other hand, we should replace the fertilizer input by developing agricultural mechanization, hydraulic and electrification and other agricultural external compensation means. Last but not least, more attention should be paid to the spatial difference of the external compensation for agricultural production, the Government should work out a favorable policy for the Central China, the West China and the Northeastern China where the output value are lower.In particular, we should guide Xinjiang, Henan, Yunnan, Ningxia, Jilin, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia to vigorously develop ecological agriculture. Beijing and other Eastern areas should increase the input of chemical fertilizer and also ensure the red line of agricultural production so as to avoid the shortage of other technology elements.