基于灰色马尔科夫模型的船舶交通流预测

Prediction of Vessel Traffic Flow Based on Grey Markov Model

鉴于船舶交通流预测的复杂性,利用单一的灰色预测方法难以对其做出准确预测,考虑交通流量的波动性,将灰色预测理论和马尔科夫预测方法结合以建立灰色马尔科夫预测模型,利用该模型对长江口河段的船舶交通流量进行预测分析。研究结果表明:灰色马尔可夫链模型的预测结果较单一的灰色预测结果更接近实际值,相对误差较小且具有较高的拟合精度,对于具有一定波动性和随机性的船舶交通流有较高的预测精度,可应用于实际船舶交通流量预测研究中。

Because of the complexity of vessel traffic flow,it is difficult to make an accurate prediction of its development tendency by solely using gray prediction method. A grey Markov model is constructed to address the fluctuation of traffic flow,and the reliability and validity of the model are verified with the traffic data from the Yangtze estuary. Simulations show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is significantly superior to ordinary grey models in terms of relative error and fitting accuracy,especially for the traffic flow with volatility and randomness. The prediction accuracy meets the requirement of the researches in ship traffic flow forecasting.