高低杠杆下货币政策冲击效应与去杠杆过程中的货币政策平稳性——基于DSGE模型的金融加速器效应检验

The Effect of Monetary Policy on the Conditions of Different Leverage Rate and the Stableness of Monetary Policy in the Course of Decreasing Leverage Rate:Test of Financial Accelerator Effect Based on DSGE Model

基于金融加速器效应视角,通过外部融资的风险补偿(EFP)机制和现金流机制,从理论上证明货币政策对实体经济的冲击效应,在高杠杆率的状态下比在低杠杆率的状态下要大。在此基础上,通过构建一个包括居民、厂商、零售商、商业银行和中央银行等部门在内的DSGE模型,实证检验发现,货币政策在高杠杆率下对经济变量的冲击效应要大于在低杠杆率下的冲击效应,货币政策的冲击效应也大于其他因素对相同经济变量的冲击效应。实证分析结论和理论分析取得一致。这说明,在当前去杠杆的过程中,保持货币政策的平稳对于抑制经济的波动和保持对经济增长的预期非常关键。货币政策要通过促进有效率的投资,从而实现在经济增长的过程中达成去杠杆的目的。货币政策要加强对影子银行的规范监管,促进和引导其平稳运行,防止其对经济活动产生大的冲击。

From the perspective of EFP and cash mechanism of financial accelerator effect,based on the DSGE model,including household sector,firm sector,and trader sector,commercial bank and central bank sector,the analysis of this paper show s that the shock effect of monetary policy on the condition of high leverage rate is higher than that of low leverage rate,and the shock effect of monetary policy is higher than that of others shock variables. The conclusion of empirical analysis is the same as that of theoretical analysis. Theses analyses demonstrate in the course of decreasing leverage rate,that monetary policy should remain stable and stick,w hich is very crucial to contain fluctuation of economy. M onetary policy should support efficient investment to decrease leverage rate by improving economic grow th. M eanw hile,monetary policy should strengthen supervise on shadow banking to prevent fluctuations of economy.