东北振兴、产业集聚和政策实施次序

Revitalization of Northeast China,Industrial Agglomeration and the Sequence of Policy Implementation

东北经济结构决定了东北经济周期较大的J形效应和高波动性,东北振兴虽然取得了较大的成效,但产业集聚发展不足造成了东北经济整体实力和竞争力的偏弱状态。东北振兴再出发的政策核心是推进产业集聚,促进产业集群发展,同时改变过去各类政策一起上的状态。政策密集出台、同步推进在实践中出现了互相消耗、行为短视等负面效应,纠正这种效应需要分步实施的政策次序:第一步首先要取得财政均衡;第二步是要严格控制地产泡沫,促进民间投资发展;第三步是实施政府主导的"除锈"计划,只有在产业集群效应呈现并形成多个产业和城市增长点之后,才能实施第三步即逐步放开楼市投资、以房地产发展促进社会需求的释放;第四步是进行社会领域的变革,如开展与人口流入相适应的配套改革等。

The economic structure in northeast China has resulted in the large J curve effect as well as high volatility in northeast China＇s economic cycle. Revitalization of northeast China has made remarkable achievements, but the underdevelopment of its industrial agglomeration has led to the weakness in the overall strength and competitiveness of northeast China as a whole. The key to northeast revitalization lies in promoting its industrial agglomeration and facilitating the development of its industrial clusters. Meanwhile, the situation of various policies being enacted and implemented together if not indiscriminately in the past should be changed. The fact that policies are introduced intensively and implemented simultaneously has amplified the negative effect of resource depletion and short-sighted behaviors in practice. To rectify this effect, the policies need to be carried out step by step in sequence. The first step is to achieve fiscal balance. The second step is to strictly control the real estate bubbles and boost the development of private investment. The third step is to put the government-led ＂ rust removal＂ plan into practice, which is to gradually liberalize investment in property market and promote the release of social demand by developing real estate. The third step can only be implemented after industrial clusters have come into being and have cultivated multiple industrial and urban growth points. And the final step is to make changes in the social field, such as supporting reforms that are compatible with population inflows.