经济政策不确定性与工业企业就业

Economic policy uncertainty and employment of industrial enterprises

使用微观企业数据实证分析了经济政策不确定性对工业企业就业的影响。基于实物期权理论,经济政策不确定性的增加使得企业延迟雇佣行为所获得的回报更大,因此企业在劳动力市场上表现的更为谨慎。进一步地,通过采用1998—2007年中国工业企业数据,对经济政策不确定性对工业企业就业的影响进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,随着经济政策不确定性的增加,工业企业的就业规模显著下降。而且,经济政策不确定性对工业企业就业规模的负面影响因企业所有制结构、资本密集度的不同而存在着较大差异。即国有企业以及劳动密集型企业受到的负面影响,要比非国有企业、外资企业和资本密集型企业的就业规模所受到的负面影响更大一些。通过选取合适的工具变量并进行稳健性分析,研究结论依然成立。最后,提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper empirically analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the employment of industrial enterprises using firm-level data. Based on the real options theory,the increase in economic policy uncertainty makes the enterprises get more returns from delayed employment behavior,so the enterprises become more cautious in the labor market.Furthermore,this paper empirically tests the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the employment of industrial enterprises,using the data of Chinese industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2007. The results show that the employment scale of industrial enterprises has dropped significantly with the increase of economic policy uncertainty. Moreover,the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on the employment scale of industrial enterprises is quite different due to different ownership structure and capital intensity of enterprises. That is,the negative impact on the employment scale of state-owned enterprises and labor-intensive enterprises is greater than that of non-state-owned enterprises,foreign enterprises and capitalintensive enterprises. Considering appropriate instrumental variables and robustness analysis,these conclusions are still valid. Finally,the paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations.