价格联动、供求替代与政策调整——基于中国玉米和小麦市场的实证分析

Price Linkage,the Replacement of Supply and Demand and Policy Adjustment: Based on an Empirical Analysis of the Corn and Wheat Market in China

小麦和玉米作为中国重要的粮食作物,其价格波动变化一方面反映了农产品比价关系,另一方面也对二者供求市场稳定和政策调整产生重要影响。采用1998年1月到2015年12月的月度价格数据,从价格联动、供求替代与政策调整角度,对中国玉米市场和小麦市场进行了实证研究。结果表明,无论是处于线性制度还是非线性制度区间,玉米价格变动对小麦价格的影响作用更大;玉米和小麦价格之间的联动关系会影响市场供求变化,主要表现为饲用消费需求的替代和进口供给的替代;在玉米实行了市场化定价加补贴的政策后,小麦的价格形成机制也需要及时改进。

The fluctuations in prices of wheat and corn,who are both the important food crops,on the one hand reflect the comparison relationship; on the other hand also have an effect on both supply and demand market stability and policy adjustment. This article has carried on the empirical research on corn and wheat market in China,from the perspective of price linkage,the replacement of supply and demand and policy adjustment,with the monthly price data from January 1998 to December 2015. The results shows that,whether in a system of linear or nonlinear range,corn prices have a more important influence on wheat prices; it finds that the relationship between corn and wheat prices will affect the market supply and demand change,mainly for the replacement on demand of forage consumption and import supply; after implementing the corn market pricing and subsidy policy,the price of wheat formation mechanism also needs to improve in time-.