政策不确定性对企业资本结构的影响研究

Research on The Effect of Economy Policy Uncertainty on Enterprise Capital Structure

本文以2003-2016年中国A股上市公司和Baker等（2013）构造的政策不确定性指标数据为样本，实证研究政策不确定性如何影响企业的资本结构以及其作用机制。研究发现，政策不确定性与企业杠杆存在显著的负相关关系，政策不确定性越高，企业杠杆越低。具体而言，政策不确定性通过显著降低企业的总体债务融资，增加企业股权融资，从而显著降低企业杠杆。本文还进一步研究了不确定性与企业最优资本结构的关系，发现政策不确定性越高，企业偏离最优资本结构的程度越大。相比于受融资约束较小的国有：企业和大企业，受融资约束较大的非国有企业和小企业受政策不确定性影响更大，政策不确定性影响企业资本结构的作用机制在不同企业中存在显著的异质性。

Baesed on the Chinese A-share listed companies deta and the economy policy uncertainty index from Baker at ak （2013） from 2003 to 2016, we empirically studies how economy policy uncertainty affects the corporation capital structure of and its mechanism of action. We find that there is a significant negative correlation between policy uncertainty and corporate leverage. The higher the policy uncertainty, the lower the leverage of the enterprise. Specifically, policy uncertainty significantly reduces corporate leverage by significantly reducing the overall debt financing of the enterprise and increasing corporate equity financing. This paper further studies the relationship between policy uncertainty and the optimal capital structure of the enterprise. It is found that the higher the policy uncertainty, the larger the deviation from the optimal capital structure. Compared with the state-owned corporations and large corporations that are less financial constraints, non-state-owned enterprises and small corporations with greater financial constraints are more affected by policy uncertainty. The mechanism of policy uncertainty affecting capital structure has significant heterogeneity in different enterprises.