社会养老保险的经济调节机制与效应研究

The Economic Adjustment Mechanism and Effects of Social Pension System

社会养老保险制度作为社会保障制度的重要一环，其对经济的调节机制与效应一直备受争议。本文以中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度为背景，通过建立一个三期世代交叠模型并引入人力资本和养老保险财富净值，分析了社会养老保险的储蓄效应和人力资本效应。理论模型表明，社会养老保险可以通过储蓄效应和人力资本效应实现其经济调节机制；养老保险财富净值与劳动人口平均GDP（劳均GDP）之比越高，国民储蓄率越低；养老保险财富净值本身会促进人力资本积累。本文利用2000-2015年的省级面板数据进行实证分析，实证结果与理论模型的预测一致并具有稳健性，这说明我国社会养老保险制度具有显著的经济调节效应，即社会养老保险可以通过对经济资源的重新配置，从而实现对经济的调节。最后，本文给出了相应的政策建议。

Social pension system as an essential component of social security, has been seriously argued about its economic adjustment mechanism and effects for a long time. This paper, based on the urban employees＇ basic pension system, analyzes the saving and human capital effects by developing a three-period overlapping generation model with human capital and pension wealth. The theory model indicates that the economic adjustment mechanism can be realized from the saving and human capital effects. It also predicts that the ratio of pension wealth to GDP per capita would decrease the national saving rate, while the pension wealth itself would make contribution to human capital accumulation. Using the panel data of China＇s 31 provinces from 2000 to 2015, we conduct an empirical study and find that the empirical results are consistent with the model prediction, which indicates there exists significant economic adjustment effects of the social pension system. Our empirical results are robust. At last, we put forward some relevant policy suggestions.