政府购买弥补医疗卫生服务供求缺口预测研究

Government purchase to make up for the gap between supply and demand of medical and health services

研究政府购买如何弥补医疗卫生服务供求缺口有重要意义。文章先从分析医疗卫生服务供求缺口入手,利用ARIMA模型测算出当政府用于购买医疗卫生服务财政支出的比例为4%时,政府购买才可在2023年基本弥补医疗卫生服务的供求缺口。然后,本研究提出弥补医疗卫生服务的供求缺口需在逐步增加财政投入的同时,协同考虑设立专项财政资金、积极引入社会资本、设立专门的转移支付管理机构、明确中央政府的支出责任等政策来弥补此缺口。

It＇s important to study how government purchases can bridge the gap between supply and demand for health care services. The article starts with analyzing the gap, and uses the ARIMA model to calculate that when the government spends 4% of the financial expenditure on purchasing health care services, the government purchase can basically make up for the gap between supply and demand of medical and health services in 2023. Then, this study proposes to make up for the gap, while gradually increasing the financial input, and jointly consider setting up special financial funds, actively introducing social capital, setting up a special transfer payment management institution, and clarifying the central government＇s expenditure responsibility and other policies.