汇率变动对服装纺织品出口价格传递效应研究

Effect of exchange rate fluctuation on export price of clothing textiles

人民币与美元的汇率对行业商品出口造成较大影响,为了解汇率变动对服装纺织品出口价格的传递程度,文章分析了影响出口价格的因素,基于含国际价格竞争的汇率传递模型,利用2012年6月至2017年12月北美行业分类标准（NAICS）三分位美国进口中国服装和纺织商品价格数据,采用VAR方法研究发现,中国对美出口价格受竞争对手价格的影响最强,汇率、生产成本及美国收入对出口价格影响较小。因此,中国对美出口服装和纺织品缺乏竞争力。由于汇率对出口价格传递很小,人民币升值将难以改变贸易余额,只会减少出口企业利润。

The exchange rate fluctuation between the RMB and the US dollar has a great impact on the export of China＇s labor-intensive industries. To understand the extent of exchange rate changes on the export price of apparel textiles, the article analyzes the factors affecting export prices, based on competition with international prices. The exchange rate transfer model, using the North American Industry Classification Standard（NAICS） from June 2012 to December 2017, the United States imports Chinese clothing and textile commodity price data, using the VAR method to find that China＇s export prices to the US are subject to competitor prices. The impact is the strongest, and the exchange rate, production costs and US income have little impact on export prices. Therefore, China＇s export of clothing and textiles to the United States is not competitive. Since the exchange rate has little to do with export prices, it will be difficult for the appreciation of the renminbi to change the trade balance and only reduce the profits of export enterprises.