增长放缓合理经济学解释及其政策含义

Explanation of Slowing Down in Economic Growth and Its Policy Implications

本文试图打开中国经济增速放缓的黑箱,从居民消费相对不足和生产相对过剩两条主线探讨增长放缓的深层原因。(1)人口生育率下降及老龄化,(2)人口迁移受阻,(3)房地产体制形成的城乡及居民间收入差距,(4)政府税费及企业其他成本负担,这四个方面因素影响到人口增长和权利配置,又深层次地影响到居民收入以及与之相关的有支付能力的消费需求,结果是居民收入与消费占GDP的比例降低;与此同时,技术进步和资本的集聚,使得生产过剩;于是发生了消费不足型的生产过剩及增长速度的放缓。本文试图在这样的分析框架下,对进入21世纪后中国这次经济增速长时间降低,给出一个较为合理的经济学解释并探讨其政策含义。

This paper summarizes the research framework from four aspects, including the declining fertility rate and ageing, the population migration hindered, the income gap between urban and rural residents caused by housing system and high taxes and other costs, which have affected the population growth and structure. In further, they deeply affected the income of residents, which is related to the consumption demand. As a result, the resident income and consumption as a proportion of GDP reduced .On the other hand, technological progress and capital accumulation have resulted in overproduction. That means the overproduction originated from shortage of consumption accompanied by a slowdown growth rate. This paper attempts to explain the declining in economic growth rate of China after entering into 21 st century and provides the policy implications.