基于溃坝洪水模型的山区堰塞湖避难场所选址

Refuge selection of barrier lakes in mountainous area based on dam break flood model

针对山区堰塞湖地理条件复杂多变,溃坝时间、范围不确定且可用于避难的场所不足的问题,本文基于溃坝洪水演进模拟结果提出一种适用于山区堰塞湖的避难场所选址方法。该方法结合堰塞湖区域地理条件,利用层次分析法对避难场所选址因子灵活分配权重值,根据经验理论确定评分标准;权重值和评分标准确定后,基于溃坝洪水演进模拟程序获取的淹没数据以及区域数据构建堰塞湖区域避难场所选址模型并计算得出选址结果;最后结合溃坝洪水演进模拟结果动态分析避难场所的最大利用时长。选择肖家桥堰塞湖为案例区域开展试验分析,试验表明本文的选址方法能灵活解决山区堰塞湖环境差异性大的问题并最大化地利用临时避难场所,为堰塞湖区域制定应急处置预案提供科学依据。

The geographical conditions of barrier lakes in mountainous area are complex and changeable, and the time and scope of dam break are uncertain and places of refuge are not enough. This paper proposes a method applying for selecting refuge of barrier lakes in mountainous area, basing on the simulation results of dam-break flood routing. Combined with the regional geographical conditions of barrier lake, this method uses the analytic hierarchy to flexibly distribute the weight value and determines the scoring standard according to the empirical theory; based on the inundation data obtained by the dam-break flood routing simulation program and regional data, the model of selecting site for refuge in barrier lake region is constructed and the results are calculated; Finally, combined with the simulation results of dam-break flood routing, the maximum utilization time of shelter is analyzed dynamically. Taking Xiaojiaqiao barrier lake as a case study, this approach can flexibly solve the problem that large environmental differences in barrier lakes area, maximize the use of temporary refuge, and provide a scientific basis for the es- tablishment of emergency plan for barrier lake.