北京市经济增长与物质消耗的脱钩分析及反弹效应研究

利用物质流分析方法对北京市1992—2015年的区域内物质消耗情况进行了分析,在此基础之上,采用Tapio脱钩模型和对数平均迪氏指数分解方法分别对北京市物质消耗的脱钩情况以及反弹效应进行了研究。结果表明,北京市GDP由1992年的612.54亿元增加到2015年的26 234.48亿元,而DMC由1992年的12 981.43万t上升到了2015年19 075.15万t;1992—2015年北京市社会经济增长与物质消耗之间的脱钩关系正由弱脱钩状态向强脱钩状态转变;北京市人口的增长和经济规模的扩张导致了DMC的增加,而物质利用效率的提高导致了DMC的降低。

Domestic material consumption in Beijing from 1992 to 2015 is calculated by using material flow analysis. On this Basis, Tapio decoupling model and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposing method are used to study the decoupling and rebound effect of DMC in Beijing. The resuhs show that Beijing＇s GDP increases from 61.254 billion yuan in 1992 to 2 623A48 billion yuan in 2015, and DMC increases from 129.814 3 million tons in 1992 to 190.751 5 million tons in 2015. The decoupling relationship between social economic growth and material consumption in Beijing from 1992 to 2015 is shifting from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. The increase in population and economic size of Beijing has led to an increase in DMC, while the increase in material use efficiency has led to a decrease in DMC.