摘要
选取近几年10个对福建省影响较大且资料较完善的台风,建立了福建省台风灾害指标体系,依据层次分析法得到影响台风灾害因子的权重,采用模糊数学法建立了台风灾害模糊评估模型。利用回归分析对灾害指标进行了分析,并对回归方程进行了显著性检验。结果表明:评估结果与台风实际灾害情况很接近说明该模型具有较高的准确率,是一种较好的灾情评价方法。防灾减灾部门可以利用评估结果在灾前采取应急措施和决策支持,将台风灾害损失减少到最小。
In this paper,the index system of typhoon disaster in Fujian is established by selecting 10 typhoons which have great influence on Fujian in recent years,and the weight of typhoon disaster factors is obtained by AHP,and the fuzzy evaluation model of typhoon disaster is established by fuzzy mathematics.Regression analysis was used to analyze disaster indicators,and the regression equation was tested for significance.The evaluation results are close to the actual disaster situation of typhoon,which shows that the model has a high accuracy and is a better method of disaster assessment.Disaster prevention and mitigation departments can use the assessment results to take emergency measures and decision-making support before the disaster,so as to minimize typhoon disaster losses.
作者
黄春枝
郑书富
Huang Chunzhi;Zheng Shufu(School of Information Engineering, Sanming University, Saming , Fujian, 365004, China)
出处
《绿色科技》
2018年第20期114-116,119,共4页
Journal of Green Science and Technology
基金
福建省大学生创新项目(编号:201711311029)
