黄河下游滩区防洪减灾能力评价

Evaluation of Flood Control and Disaster Reduction Capacity in the Lower Yellow River Beach Area

利用黄河下游历史典型漫滩洪水淹没损失和防洪工程建设资料,针对黄河下游滩区防洪减灾、治理开发和分区运用问题,从防洪工程和非工程措施两个方面,构建由4个一级指标和12个二级指标组成的黄河下游滩区综合防洪减灾能力评价指标体系。基于该评价指标体系,以相关领域专家调研为基础,通过AHP法获得黄河下游滩区防洪减灾能力指标的权重,然后采用模糊综合评价方法对评价指标进行排序,对兰考、东明黄河滩区的防洪减灾能力进行了综合评价,综合得分G=74.76,防洪减灾能力处于"较强(80)"和"一般(60)"之间,在堤防防洪能力、洪灾应对能力、人力支撑能力方面还有提升潜力。

On the basis of historical flood disaster losses and flood control engineering data, combining the floodplain area development and management, a comprehensive evaluation indication system including 4 first grade indexes and 12 second grade indexes for flood control and disaster reduction capacity was developed in consideration of flood control projects and non-flood control projects. The weights of the indices for the screening were worked out through investigation by experts in this field using AHP. Then, the biogas technologies were collated with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Furthermore, the above theory and method were applied to the case study of Lankao-Dongming beach area of the Yellow River to reveal their flood control and disaster reduction capacity and the fuzzy mathematics method was applied to make a comprehensive evaluation. Its synthesized scores was 74.76 and the capacity of flood control and disaster reduction was between 80（stronger） and 60 （general）. The results show that there are still lots of rooms for improvement of the levees, coping capacity of floods and support capability of human resources in the Lower Yellow River beach area.