颠覆性信息技术发展及对科研信息化产生的影响

The Development of Disruptive Technology on e-Science

颠覆性技术是具有变革性意义的、会对已有技术产生创新性应用和颠覆性效果的技术。过去10年间,一些颠覆性技术已经对国家的科技创新、产业产生了巨大的能效。科学发现与研究的范式经过上千年的演进,共经历了四个阶段,分别是实验观察、理论分析、计算模拟和数据密集型科学研究。这四种范式的融合,共同成为现代科学研究方法的统一体。本文分析了五大类颠覆性信息技术的发展前景,阐述了颠覆性信息技术对计算机体系结构、大数据思维模式以及科研信息化的颠覆性影响。未来随着信息技术与信息化技术将不断发展,使得科研信息化基础设施将成为像水、电、气一样的便利的基础设施,可以随时随地、智能地满足科研人员开展科学研究的需求,人类和机器将会携手取得更加显著的科技突破。

Disruptive technology is transformative technology which can create innovative applications and disruptive effects on existing technologies. In the past decade, some disruptive information technologies have generated enormous improvement to the industry, business and also in science technology innovation.In thousands of years of evolution, the Scientific discovery and research paradigm has gone through four stages, which are experimental science, theoretical science, simulation science and data-intensive science. The integration of these four paradigms together will become the unity of modern scientific research methods. This article analyzes the development prospects of the five major types of disruptive information technologies, and expounds the disruptive impact of disruptive information technologies on computer architecture, data-intensive thinking and e-Science. In the future, with the continuous development of information technology and informatization technology, the e-Science infrastructure will become a common and convenient infrastructure like water, electricity and gas. It can meet the researchers’ scientific research needs at anytime and anywhere, with intelligence. And at that time, the machine will work together with human to achieve more significant science breakthroughs.