2006—2015年中国乡村人口与住房面积的时空协同研究

Spatial and temporal cooperation of rural population and housing area in China from 2006 to 2015

为研究中国乡村建设用地扩张现状及其驱动因素,利用乡村人口统计数据和乡村住宅建筑面积现状数据,对我国乡村地区人口与乡村住房面积变化的整体时序特征、空间分异格局及其耦合和协同状态进行了定量分析。结果表明:2006—2015年,我国乡村常住人口呈现线性减少趋势,年均减少1.32×107人,而乡村户籍人口数量也于2008年后进入极缓慢减少的阶段;乡村户籍人口与乡村常住人口数量的差值逐年攀升,至2015年末,已达到改革开放以来最高的2.0×108人;而我国乡村住房面积仍呈现持续增长态势,年均递增2.48%,年均增长5.8×108 m2。全国常住和户籍口径下的乡村人均住房面积变化均呈现增长态势。常住口径下,25个省份的乡村人均住房面积呈现稳定的线性增长;在而户籍口径下,所有省份的乡村人均住房面积均表现为增长。研究时段内,我国整体乡村人口与住房面积变化的时序关联呈现不协同的特征,并且住房面积变化速率高于人口变化速率。27个省份的乡村常住人口与住房面积变化也呈现上述相同的特点;而户籍口径下,全国各评价省份的住房面积变化速率均高于人口变化速率,其中21个省份乡村户籍人口与住房面积基本呈现协同变化。推进城乡发展统一规划管理,逐步破除城乡二元结构,改革户籍制度,疏导城乡人口流动,是解决在乡村常住人口减少过程中乡村住房面积不降反增这一问题的指导思想。

The aim of this research was to study and discuss the current situation and driving factors of rural construction land expansion in China.By using the data of rural population and total floor space of rural residential buildings,the overall timing characteristics,spatial pattern and coupling and cooperation state of the rural population and housing area change in China were analyzed quantitatively.The results showed that：China＇s rural resident population showed a linear decrease during 2006—2015,with an annual reduction of 1.32×10^7,and the number of rural registered population entered a period of extremely slow reduction in 2008;The difference between rural registered population and rural resident population was rising yearly,which reached the highest since the reform and opening up to 2×10^8 at the end of 2015;Meanwhile,rural housing area in China continued growing with an average annual increase of 2.48% and an average annual growth rate of 5.8×10^8 m^2.The overall rural housing area per capita under both resident and registered caliber showed an increasing trend.The numbers of resident population in 25 provincial administrative regions showed a steady linear growth trend;While under the registered caliber,the per capita housing areas of all provinces showed an increase.During the study period,the temporal correlation of theoverall rural population and housing area in China showed a characteristic of non-cooperative,and the change rates of housing area in those years were higher than the former.The rural resident population and housing area changes of 27 regions showed the same characteristics;The change rates of housing area in all the regions evaluated were higher than the rates of registered population,while rural registered population and housing area in 21 regions showed cooperative changes.To promote the development of urban and rural unified planning management,get rid of the segmentation between urban and rural gradually,reform the household registration system and ease the population flow between urban and rural,the problem of increasing housing area in the process of rural population decline should be solved under ideology guidance.